Cuban President Fidel Castro may have made the biggest mistake of his political life last week. By imposing an amendment that would prohibit any future changes in Cuba's Socialist Constitution, he may guarantee that it will be scrapped altogether, and that nothing of his 4-decade-old regime will survive.

As you may know, the Castro regime last week collected 8.1 million signatures to request that Cuba's rubber-stamp National Assembly make the Socialist Constitution ''untouchable.'' The alleged signatures of 99.5 percent of Cuba's eligible voters were collected by Castro's neighborhood watch committees, whose evaluations of each citizen's political behavior can make or break people's lives in a country where the government controls virtually all jobs.

Castro's signature collection drive was a response to an unprecedented political offensive by Cuba's opposition. Taking advantage of a constitutional clause allowing petitions with at least 10,000 signatures to be submitted to the National Assembly, dissidents recently presented to the congress more than 11,000 signatures to convene a national referendum that would ask voters, among other things, whether they want freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, and the right to business ownership.

But Castro did not dare to ask the Cuban people which of the two proposals they favor. Instead, he ordered a signature collection drive with only one proposal -- his own. Now, the one-party National Assembly is expected to take up the government's ''referendum,'' and declare the Constitution ``untouchable.''

Castro may be shooting himself in the foot, in a big way. The opposition proposal, known as the Varela Project, would allow for peaceful and gradual change in Cuba, probably preserving many social laws that a sizable number of Cubans may want to keep.

Yet, by declaring the Constitution not amendable, Castro may be signing the death sentence of whatever is left of his four-decade-old regime.

The history of Latin America is replete with presidents-for-life who issued hundreds of constitutions, each announced as the definitive one, only to be discarded altogether once the political winds changed.

''Paradoxically, by trying to mummify the Cuban Constitution, the government may actually be declaring it irrelevant,'' says Robert Pastor, a former Carter administration official who visited Cuba last month with the former U.S. president. ``If it says this Constitution is beyond reproach, you will have to start with another Constitution.''

It's the paradox of the patriarch: By trying to prevent change, dictators who feel threatened by growing opposition often issue laws that invite their future abandonment and guarantee radical change.

For the first time in many years, the Castro regime is on the defensive. I cannot recall another instance in recent years in which Cuba's internal opposition -- despite its total lack of access to the media -- has taken the center stage of the country's political life.

In a telephone interview from Havana, opposition leader Oswaldo Payá, who organized the pro-freedom referendum drive, made precisely that point: Castro's refusal to allow the Cuban people to choose between the government and the opposition proposals is a sign of the regime's weakness.

In a clear sign that Castro knows he would lose a free vote, the Cuban strongman has not even allowed publication of the opposition's referendum proposal. If it weren't for Carter's public praise for it in a televised speech during his recent visit to Cuba, most Cubans wouldn't even know it existed.

''If they have 99 percent support of the people, as they say, why don't they allow publication of the Varela Project?'' Payá asked. ``Why don't they allow the Cuban people to hear about it through the mass media, which are paid for by all Cubans?

''Why don't we go to a public debate, in which Castro, [National Assembly President Ricardo] Alarcón and all of their top advisors get six hours to make their point, and I get 15 minutes?'' Payá asked. ``It may look like a presumption on my part, but they don't dare do it.''

So what will happen next? Castro's National Assembly is likely to declare the Constitution ''untouchable.'' It's not clear whether it will go further, and eliminate articles 66 and 88, which allow citizens to present petition drives to the National Assembly.

Either way, it's a win-win proposition for Cuba's political opposition, which is planning to go ahead with its constitutionally sanctioned right to make petitions to the National Assembly. According to some sources, it has already gathered nearly 30,000 signatures.

If the Castro regime ignores the opposition petition, it will be violating its own Constitution. If it eliminates the constitutional clause that allows citizens to request a referendum, it will be inviting radical change. In any case, an increasingly fearless opposition is becoming a key player in Cuba's political life, which is great news.

Related:
• Millions of workers get two days off to watch "National Assembly" session on television

• Cuba's Two Petitions Washington Post Editorial

•Cuban dissidents press on with Varela Project

•Cubans ordered to sign  regime loyalty oath in attempt to smash reform effort

•Varela Project threatens Castro's regime

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