Analysis: Cuba waiting and watching Obama

Amid two wars and an economic crisis, Cuba policy hardly ranks at the top of President Barack Obama's long agenda.

But circumstances are pressuring Obama to make a move on Cuba soon - or miss an opportunity to advance his pledge to restore America's leadership in the world and in its own hemisphere.

Conversations with Cuban officials here suggest that unless the Obama administration signals its intentions quickly and clearly, it will disappoint not only Cuba, but also many Latin American leaders watching for signs that the U.S. is ready to chart a dramatic new course in the region.

The unofficial target for action seems to be late April, when Obama travels to the Summit of the Americas, being held on the Caribbean island of Trinidad. Cuba is not invited, but will nonetheless be on many participants' minds.

More frequently than in the past, Latin American leaders have been flocking to Cuba in recent months, and late last year 33 Latin American and Caribbean nations called for an end to the U.S. embargo. Guatemalan President Alvaro Colon, leading a country long viewed as a loyal U.S. ally, even apologized during a recent visit for his country's supporting role in the 1961 failed Bay of Pigs invasion.

Fundamental change in the long-calcified Cuban-American relationship appears possible now because of the dual change in leadership in Havana and Washington.

In Cuba, an ailing Fidel Castro relinquished the presidency to his younger brother Raul, who has spent the past year maintaining the country's socialist system while delivering modest adjustments and coping with the destruction wrought by three hurricanes. Any hopes that the post-Fidel era would lead to a rapid unraveling of Communist rule have faded.

In Washington, Obama won the presidency in a campaign in which he pledged a willingness to speak to America's rivals and enemies. Also, the voting indicated that the hard-core anti-Castro groups in the United States are less key to electoral success, reducing their ability to block closer relations.

During a visit to Cuba last week by news executives of The Associated Press, Cuban government officials refused to speak publicly on the topic. That in itself could be a sign of how critically important they consider this period: The government does not wish any isolated comments to impede potential progress.

An air of expectancy is palpable, especially after a U.S. Senate staff report Feb. 23 issued by Richard Lugar, the influential Indiana Republican who is the ranking member of the foreign relations committee. It stated what would seem obvious to many: that the 50-year U.S. policy of shunning communist Cuba by imposing a strict trade embargo has failed to produce